Real Estate Trends January 2007
Bob Weurding, Broker Associate
Team Weurding Realty
For this year end summary, I have also included the zip codes 92124 Tierrasanta, 92126 Mira Mesa, and 92131 Scripps Ranch as they help provide for a more complete summary of the I-15 marketplace. There is also some data on the attached homes segment of the market in this report. With so many conflicting versions of the San Diego real estate market this past year, it is difficult to really know precisely what has happened. My hope is that by the time you finish reading this article you will know! According to the local MLS (Sandicor), there were 1740 more new SFR detached listings taken in 2006 as compared to 2005 (47,276 — 45,536). At the same time there were also 5,727 fewer sales in 2006 when compared to 2005 (18870 - 24597). This would explain the increase in housing inventory, and also account for the increase in the time on the market that was experienced throughout the county last year. While much of the county saw a reduction in home values, the actual amount seems to vary from place to place. A few zip codes even closed out the year with an increase over 2005. One of those areas was Poway , which finished the year with gains in both average sales price and median sales price. Even though the number of sales was down 12.4% the average sales price was up 4.2% and the median sales price was up 8.2%. RB 92127 was the only zip code in our marketplace to post more sales in 2006 than 2005 (400 — 378). It also showed a 3.5% gain in average sales price but went down a modest 2.9% in median sales price. Scripps Ranch was the only remaining area in our marketplace to post a gain in value. Prices went up an average of 1.8% on 103 fewer sales and slipped only .8% on the median sales price. Rounding out our marketplace: Tierrasanta dropped 4.5% in median sales price on 11% fewer sales. MiraMesa decreased 3.6% in median sales price on 35.7% fewer sales. RB 92128 slipped 3.9% in median sales price on 20% fewer sales. Rancho Penasquitos only dropped .9% on 26.4% less sales. There were 23.3% fewer sales throughout the county in 2006. Rancho Penasquitos and Mira Mesa experienced the greatest amount of slowdown in the number of days on the market by 21 and 23 respectively. Poway seemed to be the least affected by only increasing 9 days over 2005. Much of what I just reported also seemed to apply to the attached SFR homes. As Realtors we took 5% more listings in 2006 (29,445 — 28,037) and sold 25.9% fewer homes (10,107 — 13,632). Prices were for the most part down throughout the county and also in our marketplace. Poway was once again the exception posting a slight gain of .8% in average sales price and no loss or gain in median sales price. Rancho Penasquitos was off in average sales price but had a very slight increase in median sales price. The number of home sales were off as follows: Poway 15.2%, Tierrasanta 35.6%, Mira Mesa 53%, RB 92127 25.3%, RB 92128 26.8%, PQ 10.1%, and Scripps Ranch 33.1%
.
The following zip codes posted decreases in median sales price: Tierrasanta 4.2%, Mira Mesa 5.9%, RB 92127 7.7%, RB 92128 6.4%, and Scripps Ranch 4.3%. Assuming that there no dramatic changes in interest rates, and that the economy stays on track, I personally predict that 2007 will continue to see some minor downward adjustment in prices, and while some areas will be up, most areas will be down. After all of the years of steady increases it is perfectly normal to stop and adjust. I believe there will be a slight improvement in the number of sales over 2006. And, after years of steady increases in the number of real estate agents, we will finally see a decline in the numbers as many rethink their decision to join the profession. With that said I believe we will experience an overall strong market in 2007. It will continue to be a buyer’s market but the sellers that follow the advice of their real estate professionals will do just fine. Source: Sandicor, MLS, and Dataquick
Team Weurding Realty
For this year end summary, I have also included the zip codes 92124 Tierrasanta, 92126 Mira Mesa, and 92131 Scripps Ranch as they help provide for a more complete summary of the I-15 marketplace. There is also some data on the attached homes segment of the market in this report. With so many conflicting versions of the San Diego real estate market this past year, it is difficult to really know precisely what has happened. My hope is that by the time you finish reading this article you will know! According to the local MLS (Sandicor), there were 1740 more new SFR detached listings taken in 2006 as compared to 2005 (47,276 — 45,536). At the same time there were also 5,727 fewer sales in 2006 when compared to 2005 (18870 - 24597). This would explain the increase in housing inventory, and also account for the increase in the time on the market that was experienced throughout the county last year. While much of the county saw a reduction in home values, the actual amount seems to vary from place to place. A few zip codes even closed out the year with an increase over 2005. One of those areas was Poway , which finished the year with gains in both average sales price and median sales price. Even though the number of sales was down 12.4% the average sales price was up 4.2% and the median sales price was up 8.2%. RB 92127 was the only zip code in our marketplace to post more sales in 2006 than 2005 (400 — 378). It also showed a 3.5% gain in average sales price but went down a modest 2.9% in median sales price. Scripps Ranch was the only remaining area in our marketplace to post a gain in value. Prices went up an average of 1.8% on 103 fewer sales and slipped only .8% on the median sales price. Rounding out our marketplace: Tierrasanta dropped 4.5% in median sales price on 11% fewer sales. MiraMesa decreased 3.6% in median sales price on 35.7% fewer sales. RB 92128 slipped 3.9% in median sales price on 20% fewer sales. Rancho Penasquitos only dropped .9% on 26.4% less sales. There were 23.3% fewer sales throughout the county in 2006. Rancho Penasquitos and Mira Mesa experienced the greatest amount of slowdown in the number of days on the market by 21 and 23 respectively. Poway seemed to be the least affected by only increasing 9 days over 2005. Much of what I just reported also seemed to apply to the attached SFR homes. As Realtors we took 5% more listings in 2006 (29,445 — 28,037) and sold 25.9% fewer homes (10,107 — 13,632). Prices were for the most part down throughout the county and also in our marketplace. Poway was once again the exception posting a slight gain of .8% in average sales price and no loss or gain in median sales price. Rancho Penasquitos was off in average sales price but had a very slight increase in median sales price. The number of home sales were off as follows: Poway 15.2%, Tierrasanta 35.6%, Mira Mesa 53%, RB 92127 25.3%, RB 92128 26.8%, PQ 10.1%, and Scripps Ranch 33.1%
.
The following zip codes posted decreases in median sales price: Tierrasanta 4.2%, Mira Mesa 5.9%, RB 92127 7.7%, RB 92128 6.4%, and Scripps Ranch 4.3%. Assuming that there no dramatic changes in interest rates, and that the economy stays on track, I personally predict that 2007 will continue to see some minor downward adjustment in prices, and while some areas will be up, most areas will be down. After all of the years of steady increases it is perfectly normal to stop and adjust. I believe there will be a slight improvement in the number of sales over 2006. And, after years of steady increases in the number of real estate agents, we will finally see a decline in the numbers as many rethink their decision to join the profession. With that said I believe we will experience an overall strong market in 2007. It will continue to be a buyer’s market but the sellers that follow the advice of their real estate professionals will do just fine. Source: Sandicor, MLS, and Dataquick
