Real Estate Trends November 2007
Bob Weurding, Broker Associate
Team Weurding Realty Don’t you just hate it when you are only told part of a story? If I have learned anything over the past 10 years researching the real estate market for this article, it is that numbers do not lie, but they can certainly represent the facts differently. We see and hear it all the time when reading or hearing about the state of our real estate market. Therefore, my intent is to always provide the reader with “all” of the facts so they can make an informed decision when it comes to real estate matters. When reading an article on real estate statistics, the reader needs to understand: 1. The different points of comparison. For example, it is only natural to compare the current year to last year, but when last year was the 4th best year ever in real estate, this year is bound to look bad. 2. Depending on the specific marketplace, both median and average prices can distort the facts. Average works well when there is not a big spread in the prices such as 92128 or 92129. When looking at 92127 & 92064, a million dollar home and a $600,000 home average $800,000 which means nothing. Median price is not much help either.
3. Short periods of time like month to month can be inaccurate due to the ups and downs in a typical real estate cycle. A longer period of time is usually better.
4. Lastly, it is dangerous to compare a whole county when it comes to real estate statistics because there are so many variables that make for different results from neighborhood to neighborhood.
By now you may be wondering what is my point in all of this? After reading and hearing all the doom and gloom about our current real estate market, I feel we need to hear more relevant information as it pertains to “our” neighborhoods. The number of SFR home sales (YTD) for the county are off by 17.1% from last year. Poway is off by 14.6%, RB92128 is down by 9.7%, PQ92129 is only off by 7.3% and RB92127 is actually up 9.5%. (Don’t forget we are comparing to 2006). The median sales price of a home for the past 10 months in the county is down 5.6% from the same period in 2006. Poway is down less than 1%, RB92128 is off 3.1%, PQ92129 is down 2.3% and again, RB92127is up 5.7%. By the way, inventory is down across the board from September and if history repeats itself it will go down again in both November and December. It will once again increase after the Holidays. If you are a seller, this should be sending you a message to keep your home active during the holidays. Why not take advantage of the opportunity provided to you by your competition? Source: Sandicor, MLS, and Dataquick
Team Weurding Realty Don’t you just hate it when you are only told part of a story? If I have learned anything over the past 10 years researching the real estate market for this article, it is that numbers do not lie, but they can certainly represent the facts differently. We see and hear it all the time when reading or hearing about the state of our real estate market. Therefore, my intent is to always provide the reader with “all” of the facts so they can make an informed decision when it comes to real estate matters. When reading an article on real estate statistics, the reader needs to understand: 1. The different points of comparison. For example, it is only natural to compare the current year to last year, but when last year was the 4th best year ever in real estate, this year is bound to look bad. 2. Depending on the specific marketplace, both median and average prices can distort the facts. Average works well when there is not a big spread in the prices such as 92128 or 92129. When looking at 92127 & 92064, a million dollar home and a $600,000 home average $800,000 which means nothing. Median price is not much help either.
3. Short periods of time like month to month can be inaccurate due to the ups and downs in a typical real estate cycle. A longer period of time is usually better.
4. Lastly, it is dangerous to compare a whole county when it comes to real estate statistics because there are so many variables that make for different results from neighborhood to neighborhood.
By now you may be wondering what is my point in all of this? After reading and hearing all the doom and gloom about our current real estate market, I feel we need to hear more relevant information as it pertains to “our” neighborhoods. The number of SFR home sales (YTD) for the county are off by 17.1% from last year. Poway is off by 14.6%, RB92128 is down by 9.7%, PQ92129 is only off by 7.3% and RB92127 is actually up 9.5%. (Don’t forget we are comparing to 2006). The median sales price of a home for the past 10 months in the county is down 5.6% from the same period in 2006. Poway is down less than 1%, RB92128 is off 3.1%, PQ92129 is down 2.3% and again, RB92127is up 5.7%. By the way, inventory is down across the board from September and if history repeats itself it will go down again in both November and December. It will once again increase after the Holidays. If you are a seller, this should be sending you a message to keep your home active during the holidays. Why not take advantage of the opportunity provided to you by your competition? Source: Sandicor, MLS, and Dataquick
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